Winds of Change
On November 7th, the leaders of Taiwan and China met for the first time since the Communists defeated the Nationalists in 1949. Some hailed the meeting as a turning point in the relationship between the two countries, but no changes in policy arose from the meeting. China will continue to keep large amounts of armaments aimed at Taiwan, Taiwan will not officially submit to China, and China will not recognize Taiwan. The obvious question, then, is why the meeting took place. It seems that despite its aggressive behavior towards other countries in the region, China is attempting to achieve its goal of bringing Taiwan under its rule through peaceful means. China’s success in this matter won’t come easily, but it may be inevitable.
The meeting with Taiwan comes as China’s military puts growing pressure on its smaller neighbors. Vast portions of the South China Sea are contested by two or more countries, and China has gotten into spats with Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and, of course, Taiwan over claims to various parts of the Sea—rich in oil reserves. Most recently, China aggravated its neighbors by creating artificial islands with military installations in disputed territories in the South China Sea. Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, China can claim a 200 mile exclusive economic zone around these islands, cutting chunks out of territory claimed by its neighbors.
Despite its historical and territorial disputes, Taiwan is drifting closer and closer to China. Ma Ying-jeou, who has been the president of Taiwan since 2008, has signed more than 20 trade agreements with China, bringing the two countries closer than they’ve ever been before. For China, the meeting was only a small step towards achieving its ultimate goal of re-incorporating Taiwan, but it is a step at a time when it is frustrating many of its neighbors.
Taiwan is more dangerous to antagonize than some of China’s other neighbors because of the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires the United States to intervene in the case of an attempt by China to forcefully take Taiwan. The United States also demonstrated its commitment to this obligation during the 1995-1996 Taiwan strait crisis by deploying naval forces to the region after China fired missiles off the coast of Taiwan to try and influence the elections. China’s strategy in regards to Taiwan needs to consider the United States’ protection of the island nation and, consequently, that its only route to achieving the long desired “one China” objective is through peaceful measures.
Ma has certainly brought Taiwan closer to China over his tenure as the president of Taiwan. However, this trend may not continue because his stay in office is coming to an end, and his policies are not indicative of the views of the people of Taiwan. Ma’s party (KMT) suffered substantial losses in the midterm elections to the competing DPP, and his approval rating is hanging at a measly 21%. Polls for the upcoming 2016 presidential election show the DPP’s candidate leading the KMT candidate by huge margins—39% to 22%. This is due in no small part to Ma deepening economic ties with China, an act which was met with massive protests in Taiwan. The majority of Taiwanese people want to expand economic ties with countries other than China and disagree with Ma’s support of the “1992 Consensus.” The “1992 Consensus” recognizes that Taiwan is part of the Chinese nation, but also that there are two states in China that disagree on who controls the nation. The problematic part of this agreement for the majority of Taiwanese is that it considers Taiwan to be a part of the Chinese nation, not an independent one. With Ma’s party and leadership on the way out of power in Taiwan, China’s attempt to bring Taiwan closer economically and politically will likely be slowed down, and the DPP may even reverse some of Ma’s efforts to bring Taiwan closer to China.
Despite the opposition of the majority of Taiwanese to Ma’s deepening of ties with China, it may be inevitable that Taiwan rejoins China because of the latter’s increasing economic influence. In 2013, 39% of exports from Taiwan went to China as did 62% of overseas investment. Ma’s trade deals have allowed this and also enable Chinese state owned enterprises (SOEs) to buy up much smaller Taiwanese businesses, giving the Chinese government direct influence on Taiwan’s economy, which is already heavily reliant on its relationship with China. China clearly has and is increasing its economic leverage over Taiwan, and it may be able to use that leverage regardless of who is in power. Any doubt that China is intent on using its economic leverage is cast aside by statements made during the tenure of former president Hu Jintao, when the Chinese government “explicitly stated that economic integration with Taiwan would precede actual political acquisition.” The plans of Hu’s administration appear to be coming to fruition as Taiwan is now certainly vulnerable to economic pressure from China.
The meeting in Singapore represents another step towards China’s goal of bringing Taiwan back under its control. Taiwan is well on its way to becoming economically dependent on China, and what follows that could be a surprisingly peaceful takeover of Taiwan as China uses its military to further its interests in other parts of East Asia like the South China Sea. Whether this actually occurs is dependent on results of the next election and how Taiwanese leadership proceeds. Even if the KMT maintains power and begins discussing integration with China, the people of Taiwan and the international community may resist or act to prevent China from acquiring it.
The image featured in this article was taken by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. The original image can be found here.